Bundesliga odds, picks, predictions: Leipzig vs Mönchengladbach best bets and more


Borussia Dortmund beat RB Leipzig 2-1 at home last Friday to tie Bayern Munich at the top of the Bundesliga. Union Berlin again dropped points as their title hopes began to fade in the stretch run. With 11 games remaining, Bayern and Dortmund are on a collision course ahead of their big matchup in Munich on April 1st.

Dortmund are also out of the Champions League and will have to avoid disappointment in a massive rivalry showdown at Schalke in the Leviaderby this weekend. , which is one of the highlight matches of the weekend. Leipzig are in a difficult situation with Manchester City looming in the Champions League on Tuesday.

The action begins with Cologne hosting Bochum on Friday and ends with Union Berlin’s visit to Wolfsburg on Sunday.

Here are my three best bets in the Bundesliga this weekend.

Bundesliga odds and recommendations

RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach

Leipzig odds -270
Gladbach odds +600
draw +400
over/under 2.5 (-190 / +154)
day | day | hour Saturday | 9:30 AM ET
Viewing method ESPN+
Odds by FanDuel.Stay up to date Click here for soccer odds.

Week after week, Gladbach has pretty mediocre numbers in the Bundesliga. They place him in 10th place in basic figures for negative target difference and average. They have struggled to be consistent under Daniel Farke. Foles likes to slow the tempo of possession and doesn’t press too much, but that doesn’t help the defense to be an above-average unit overall.

However, Gladbach can still play against the league’s top teams. Foles beat Dortmund, Leipzig and Bayern. They also drew Bayern 1-1 in the other meeting between the two clubs.Leipzig showed a crack in transition defense against Dortmund last week.

Falls is an effective quick strike transition attack, trying to get the ball forward as soon as he regains it. If the ball is not behind, Foles recycles it, slowing possession. Leipzig don’t do a lot of high-pressing or counter-pressing when they lose the ball.

Gladbach should have a lot of success moving away from home in this match and Foles also have better set-piece counts on either end of the pitch. Given that it’s a tricky spot in between, we bet on Gladbach at +1.25 and splurge on the money line at +550 and above.

Recommended by Dabundo: Gladbach +1.25 (-110), Gladbach ML (+600)

Hertha Berlin vs Mainz 05

Hertha odds +180
Mainz odds +145
draw +230
over/under 2.5 (-116 / -106)
day | day | hour Saturday | 9:30 AM ET
Viewing method ESPN+
Odds by FanDuel.Stay up to date Click here for soccer odds.

Mainz entered the match as one of the best-formed teams in the entire Bundesliga, winning four straight. They have scored his 11 goals in their last four league games against Augsburg, Leverkusen, Gladbach and most recently Hoffenheim. Mainz is slightly on the better side overall, but this price as a small road favorite is their high selling spot.

The defense allowed at least 1.5 xGA in three of its four wins, and Bo Svensson’s team wasn’t as elite defensively as last season. The market was also way too low on this Hertha defense, but this wasn’t as bad as the goals allowed suggest.

The basic process numbers aren’t bad, but they’ve been unlucky with their opponents’ finishes and had poor shot stops.

Still, I have no doubt that he won’t be as bad in the future as he has been. He had the worst xG difference after a shot in all of Germany and was robbed of his eight goals by Hertha for stopping his bad shots. There is a possibility that a positive regression will come to Hertha. Otherwise, this defense is above average in shots allowed and big scoring chances created.

Hertha’s offense has major problems, creating quality chances, often getting bogged down with shots from long range and settling for poor looks. However, Berlin are underrated as a home underdog against a mid-table Mainz team. Bet on them with PKs of -105 or better.

Dabbundo’s Pick: Hertha Berlin PK (-105 or better)

Freiburg vs Hoffenheim

Freiburg odds -120
Hoffenheim odds +280
draw +260
over/under 2.5 (-128 / +106)
day | day | hour Sunday | 10:30 a.m. ET
Viewing method ESPN+
Odds by DraftKings.Stay up to date Click here for soccer odds.

Freiburg and Hoffenheim may be very far from each other in the Bundesliga standings, but their basic statistical profiles are more similar than one might expect. Hoffenheim, a team that has not won a game since October 14 in Germany, has a lot of positive regressions in its offense. They rank him 7th in his xG creations and box he is top 7 in entries, crosses completed in the box and shots per match.

Nonetheless, Hoffenheim are Germany’s 13th most goalscorers and sit 16th after seven consecutive defeats in all competitions. They have performed as well as they have in the past few seasons, but are now bottoming out in the market at this price and spot.

Hoffenheim also had goalkeeper Oliver Baumann’s shot stop go awry. He’s been an average Bundesliga keeper for most of the past season, so there’s no reason to expect him to continue to struggle.

One of Freiburg’s big advantages is their set-pieces, which are quite effective at both ends of the pitch. With Freiburg performing so high in the Bundesliga standings, Hoffenheim is underrated and at least he can’t score a single point on Sunday.

It’s also a tricky spot for Freiburg, sandwiched between their Europa League legs against Juventus. Undermining Freiburg’s attack, buoyed by the most penalties awarded in Germany, they are buying Hoffenheim’s attack on the cheap after three consecutive goalless shows.

Dabbundo’s Pick: Hoffenheim +0.5 (-110 or more)

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